Negative advertising hurts both candidates in race headed to the wire.
U.S. Rep. Michael Arcuri has a five-point lead in his race against Republican businessman Richard Hanna in the 24th Congressional District. Arcuri's lead of 48 percent to 43 percent among likely voters is down three points from a Siena Poll taken six weeks ago. About 10 percent of voters remain undecided.
Most political analysts in Washington rate the race a "tossup" and note that Hanna lost by fewer than 10,000 votes in his first run for the seat in 2008.
Both candidates have been engaged in an intense, negative advertising war marked by moe than $4 million in spending for the 24th Congressional District seat. The seat is targeted by both national political parties and outside interest groups. It is among four seats Republicans are counting on in New York as part of a national strategy to win back control of the House of Representatives.
"The negative advertising proliferating the airwaves and mail boxes of the 24th Congressional District is having an effect on the way both candidates are viewed by the voters," said Siena Poll spokesman Steve Greenberg.
The Siena Poll found Hanna is considerably more well known than six weeks ago. But both candidates -- who previously had two-to-one favorability ratings -- are now viewed unfavorably by nearly as many voters as view them favorably.
“Both candidates do well with voters of their own party, with Arcuri doing a little better among Democrats than Hanna does with Republicans," Greenberg said. "Independent voters continue to side with Arcuri, giving him a 12-point lead, down ever so slightly from a 14-point lead six weeks ago."
Arcuri benefits from a gender gap, Greenberg said. Women favor the second-term Democrat by 54 to 36 percent. Men favor Hanna by 49 to 42 percent.
The poll of 632 likely voters was conducted Sunday throught Monday in the district, which includes most of Cayuga and Oneida counties and all of Cortland and Tompkins counties. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
Contact Washington correspondent Mark Weiner at mweiner@syracuse.com or 571-970-3751.