Syracuse, NY -- A Siena College poll released this morning shows incumbent Democrat Darrel Aubertine and challenger Republican Patty Ritchie in almost a dead heat during the waning days of the campaign in the 48th state Senate District. In a poll of likely voters, Ritchie leads Aubertine 47 percent to 43 percent. With a margin of error of 4.7...
Aubertine
RitchieSyracuse, NY -- A Siena College poll released this morning shows incumbent Democrat Darrel Aubertine and challenger Republican Patty Ritchie in almost a dead heat during the waning days of the campaign in the 48th state Senate District.
In a poll of likely voters, Ritchie leads Aubertine 47 percent to 43 percent. With a margin of error of 4.7 percent, that makes the race too close to call.
The latest poll is only a slight change from the 48-45 percent lead she had on Sept. 28.
“This race has remained extraordinarily tight over the course of a fiercely contested campaign. Aubertine has been successful in this district with a significant Republican enrollment edge twice, however, he now appears to be in the battle of his political life,” said Siena pollster Steve Greenberg in a press release.
In their own parties, Aubertine continues to win the support of more than three fourths of the Democrats, while Ritchie has improved among Republicans, going to 66 percent, up from 61 percent.
Aubertine continues to close the gap among independent voters, trailing by 8 points down from 28 points.
The 48th District includes Oswego, Jefferson and St. Lawrence counties.
In Oswego, the district’s largest county, Ritchie’s lead is down to 5 points from 12. She continues to lead by 19 points in St. Lawrence County, the smallest county in the district.
Aubertine has seen his lead in Jefferson County fall to 6 points from 19.
Slightly more of Aubertine’s supporters, 70 percent, than Ritchie’s supporters, 63 percent, told pollsters they are absolutely certain to vote for their candidate.
Incumbent Aubertine is viewed favorably by 52 percent of the voters and unfavorably by 39 percent. That’s down from September when 54 percent found him favorable and 33 percent found him unfavorable.
Ritchie’s favorable rating rose to 53 percent in the October poll, up from 39 percent in September, when 43 percent of the voters didn’t know enough about her to have an opinion.
When asked if they want to re-elect Aubertine or would prefer “someone else” half prefer “someone else.” That’s up from 44 percent. Some 42 percent said they are prepared to re-elect him, down from 45 percent.
"With just days until voters go to the polls, both campaigns need to focus their energy on turning out their supporters. The North Country may be in for a late night of counting before a winner can be declared," Greenberg said.