Tea Party favorite Doug Hoffman still favored by 15 percent after suspending his campaign.
Matt Doheny (left) and Bill Owens, candidates for the 23rd Congressional District seat in Congress, shake hands Oct. 15 after a debate at the Channel 9 studio in Syracuse. Washington -- Democratic U.S. Rep. Bill Owens is in a dead heat in the 23rd Congressional District race with Republican challenger Matt Doheny, 40 percent to 37 percent, in a new Siena Research Institute poll of likely voters released today.
The poll shows that Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman could play an unintended spoiler role, as he picked up support from 15 percent of likely voters even though he has suspended his campaign.
When Siena pollsters told Hoffman supporters that he had dropped out of the race (but will remain on the ballot) his support dropped to 4 percent, and Owens and Doheny were tied at 42 percent.
"In the final days, the race in the 23rd Congressional District is tightening," said Siena pollster Steve Greenberg. "No matter how you measure the impact of Doug Hoffman remaining on the ballot, Matt Doheny has tightened the gap against Bill Owens."
A previous Siena poll in mid-October had Owens with an 11-point lead, but that margin shrank to five points when voters were told Hoffman had suspended his campaign.
Greenberg said Hoffman remains the big wild card headed into Tuesday's election.
“Will voters know or won’t they know that Hoffman has suspended his campaign? That question will determine how many votes are siphoned away on the Conservative Party line from the two major party candidates,” Greenberg said.
“Either way," he added, "it appears likely that Hoffman will get enough votes to ensure that either Owens or Doheny will be elected with the support of less than 50 percent of the voters."
Since the previous poll, Doheny has made his strongest gains in the southwestern part of the 11-county district, closest to Syracuse. Doheny opened a seven-point lead in the part of the district that includes Oswego and Madison counties. Previously he and Owens were tied in the region.
The poll of 623 likely voters in the district was conducted Saturday through Tuesday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
Contact Washington correspondent Mark Weiner at mweiner@syracuse.com or 571-970-3751.