Voters favor Arcuri on four of six issues over Republican Richard Hanna.
U.S. Rep, Michael Arcuri, D-Utica, leads Republican businessman Richard Hanna, 48 percent to 40 percent, in the first independent poll of their rematch campaign for Congress.Washington -- A new poll shows U.S. Rep. Michael Arcuri has opened up an 8-point lead over Republican challenger Richard Hanna in what is expected to be one of most tightly-contested House races in the nation this fall.
The Siena Research Institute poll released this morning is the first independent assessment of voters in the 24th Congressional District to be made public this year.
In the 2008 election, Arcuri, D-Utica, squeaked by Hanna, an Oneida County businessman, 52 percent to 48 percent.
The Siena poll released today found likely voters favor Arcuri over Hanna, 48 to 40 percent, and prefer the second-term moderate Democrat on four of six issues: jobs, health care, the war in Afghanistan and education.
Hanna was favored on only one issue – the federal budget deficit.
Voters were split evenly between Arcuri and Hanna on the sixth issue: taxes.
Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg warned against reading too much into the poll, since neither candidate has topped the 50-percent mark among likely voters.
“This rematch figures to be just as intense and just as hard fought as the race two years ago,” Greenberg said in a statement. “While Arcuri has two more years of a record in Congress, it’s hard to know whether that will help him or hurt him in a year where voters are unhappy with Washington. This race is getting national attention, and we can certainly understand why.”
Most Washington political handicappers consider the second round of Arcuri-Hanna to be among the top 50 competitive House races in a year when Republicans are expected to make a serious bid for control of Congress. Republicans say the NY-24 seat is one of their top priorities in the Northeast.
The telephone poll of 605 likely voters in the 24th Congressional District was taken Monday through Wednesday last week. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Arcuri spokesman Jeb Fain said the congressman believes the only poll that matters is on Election Day.
“We don’t put a lot of stock in polls,” Fain said. “Our focus is on the conversations we're having with voters about Congressman Arcuri's record of delivering for Upstate New York: bringing home $1 million for the VA Clinic in Rome, helping Remington Arms and Nucor Steel save and create good-paying jobs, and protecting our water from unsafe gas drilling.”
The Siena poll respondents overwhelmingly ranked jobs and the economy (45 percent) as the most important issue for their representative in Congress, according to the Siena poll.
The other top issues are the federal deficit (15 percent), health care (13 percent), the war in Afghanistan (9 percent), education and taxes (8 percent each).
President Barack Obama receives mixed reviews in the Republican-leaning swing district, with equal numbers of voters viewing him favorably and unfavorably.
The poll found former Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin is viewed unfavorably by the majority of voters, but Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is viewed even more unfavorably.
Arcuri, a member of the moderate Blue Dog caucus in the House, has repeatedly asserted his independence from Obama and Pelosi in the last two years.
Arcuri voted against the Democratic health care reform bill, Obama’s top domestic priority, despite several personal phone calls from the president and intense pressure from Pelosi.
An independent study by The National Journal, a congressional news magazine, found Arcuri tied for the most centrist voting record among House Democrats in 2009.
The analysis showed Arcuri voted for liberal issues 50.2 percent of the time, and for conservative issues on 49.8 percent of the votes tracked by the publication.
Contact Washington correspondent Mark Weiner at mweiner@syracuse.com or 571-970-3751.