As of Sunday, estimated proceeds are more than $200,000 short of band's record $1 million guarantee.
View full sizeSteven Tyler performs with Aerosmith at Fenway Park in Boston August 14.With classic rock band Aerosmith guaranteed a record $1 million for the Thursday night concert that opens the New York State Fair's Mohegan Sun Grandstand series, less than half of the available tickets have been sold.
As of close of business Sunday, 8,458 tickets had been sold to the 17,000-seat grandstand. Using $94 as the average ticket price, the estimated take stands at $795,052, or more than $200,000 short of the band's $1 million guaranteed payment.
That doesn't account for what it costs the fair to stage the show. Fair director Dan O'Hara would not say how much that might cost but insisted the success of the entire 2010 grandstand series would keep the pricey Aerosmith show from pulling the series, and the fair, too far into the red. Ticket prices for Aerosmith are the highest in fair history. The $104 tickets are sold out; $94 and $84 tickets remain.
O'Hara said Monday he hopes good weather and a big walk-up crowd Thursday will give the fair a chance to meet the guarantee from ticket sales.
The fair would need to sell at least 2,180 tickets in three days to hit a minimum of $1 million in sales.
"I think we need to sell a few more," O'Hara said. "I'm confident we're going to get a good walk-up. The weather is supposed to be beautiful after a weekend of rain."
O'Hara said he's pleased with the overall ticket sales for this year's seven grandstand shows. Fair public relations director Fred Pierce said that as of close of business Sunday, 67,981 tickets had been sold for grandstand concerts.
The Sunday concert by teen pop star Justin Bieber tops the list with more than 16,000 sold. Pierce said of the other five concerts, 6,500 is the lowest ticket sale figure. Pierce said that total is 9.45 percent higher than tickets sold for the seven shows in 2009.
O'Hara said he couldn't translate what those sales mean in terms of revenue until all the costs are figured in after the series.
The report released earlier this month after an investigation of the fair by the office of the Inspector General said the fair's grandstand concerts lost $112,475 in 2007 and $88,579 last year, and made $57,272 in 2008. Last year O'Hara trimmed the grandstand series from 11 to seven shows.
Those figures took into account concession and merchandising sales as well as
advertising sponsorships on the revenue side and booking costs, entertainer fees, stage set-up and backstage management on the cost side.
O'Hara said he takes a "helicopter view" of the grandstand series to measure its success, with factors going beyond those listed above.
"You have people walking around before the show, spending money," he said. "We get a percentage of the Strait (midway) shows, the rides, the sales of different beverages."
Gary Bongiovanni, editor of Pollstar magazine, which tracks nationwide music industry figures, said Monday this summer has seen a 15 percent drop in ticket sales.
"We're not having the best of years this summer," he said.
Bongiovanni said Aerosmith's $1 million guarantee doesn't surprise him. To some extent, he said, having a seven-show series makes that less risky than it would be for a one-shot concert.
"But this is not the best environment to push the envelope on price," he said. "In our business, the only way the artist will know they've overstepped their (fee and ticket price) boundaries is when people don't buy the tickets."
David Snowden, chief executive officer of Triangle Talent of Louisville, which booked 2009 and 2010's grandstand and Chevy Court shows, said grandstand sales here are ahead of the national curve.
This is one of 18 state fairs for which Triangle booked entertainment.
"The analysis I can best give you is that the economy has not been a good thing for anything," Snowden said. "The reason is, people don't have as many discretionary funds."
Here, he said, "sales are on the upswing."
Snowden said classic rock bands like the Rolling Stones -- and Aerosmith -- are known for big walk-up crowds.
"We have been seeing for a lot of outdoor shows people waiting to the last minute," Bongiovanni said.
Aerosmith played one other state fair this summer and ticket sales were similar to here. An official from that fair, the California Mid-State Fair in Paso Robles, Calif., said 7,999 tickets were sold for the 14,000-seat grandstand in late July.
Mark Bialczak can be reached at 470-2175 or mbialczak@syracuse.com. He posts frequently at www.syracuse.com/entertainment.