Howie Hawkins slim but solid following could keep Cuomo from the landslide win he had four years ago, poll finds.
SYRACUSE, N.Y. -- Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins' slim support with likely voters could keep Gov. Andrew Cuomo from the same landslide victory he claimed four years ago, according to a new poll out this morning.
Hawkins, a UPS worker from Syracuse, isn't a serious threat to Cuomo, a Democrat, or Rob Astorino, the Republican candidate for governor, the poll shows.
But, with two weeks to go, Hawkins is pulling 9 percent of the statewide vote, according to the poll from Siena College Research Institute.
And that could be more than enough to push the Green Party to "Row C" on the ballot, a political maneuver that would knock the Conservative Party down a notch and mark the largest victory for Hawkins and his party in New York state.
To win the coveted Row C, Hawkins would have to get more votes than Astorino on the Conservative Party line. That appears within reach, considering the Conservatives got just 5 percent of the gubernatorial vote four years ago.
"I think it's absolutely possible that Hawkins could get five percent of the vote," Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said.
Overall, Cuomo leads Astorino by 21 points, a smaller lead than this summer. Of those surveyed, 54 percent they'd vote for Cuomo and 33 percent for Astorino, the poll found. Among likely Upstate voters, Cuomo leads Astorino by 9 points, the poll found.
Astorino is on track to win about as many votes on Nov. 4 as Carl Paladino, Cuomo's challenger four years ago, the poll found.
In 2010, Cuomo's win was much larger. The difference this time is Hawkins, according to Greenberg.
"If Hawkins does that well on Election Day - something third party candidates often don't do - then it will almost certainly make this year's race closer than four years ago and keep Cuomo well below his total vote from 2010," Greenberg said in a news release.
Hawkins' showing comes as some progressives in New York are unhappy with Cuomo, a Democrat running for a second term.
The governor won over the union-backed Working Families Party endorsement earlier this year in part by pledging to back an all-Democratic state Senate. In recent days, he's made good on that pledge by backing Democrats in tight Senate races. This season, he's been promoting a women's equality act that includes codifying abortion case law into state statutes, another key issue among some progressives.
But Cuomo took an unexpected denting in this fall's Democratic primary from Zephyr Teachout, who challenged the governor to more boldly embrace progressive ideals. She ended up winning half of the state's counties.
Hawkins' platform includes a call for a $15 hourly minimum wage rate, a ban on hydrofracking, using government money to hire unemployed workers for public projects, a single-payer healthcare program, rejecting the Common Core teaching standards (and the federal money that came with them), refiguring school aid to give more help to poorer districts and raising taxes on the richest New Yorkers.
Today's poll comes just hours before the only gubernatorial debate this fall between all four candidates: Cuomo, Astorino, Hawkins and Libertarian candidate Michael McDermott. The debate begins at 8 p.m.
Other interesting findings from Siena's poll:
- 84 percent of those polled believe Cuomo will win, no matter who they are personally supporting.
- John Cahill, the Republicans' best shot at wining a state-wide office, is 20 points behind incumbent Democrat Eric Schneiderman for the attorney general seat.
- Onondaga County Comptroller Bob Antonacci is trailing 27 points behind state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, who is running for re-election.
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