But the question is, how big is Maffei's lead?
Syracuse, NY -- The two candidates in the 25th Congressional District released dueling polls Monday that agreed on at least one point: U.S. Rep. Dan Maffei has a large lead over Republican Ann Marie Buerkle heading into the fall election season.
The question that the two campaigns debated is: How big?
Buerkle paid for a poll taken last week that shows Maffei leading by 9 percentage points, 46 to 37, with 17 percent undecided. Maffei paid for a poll at the end of June that showed the congressman leading by 19 percentage points, 54 to 35, with 11 percent of likely voters undecided.
Both surveys were conducted by partisan polling firms, but that’s where the similarities ended. The Buerkle poll was from a smaller sample (300 vs. 600 likely voters) and had a larger margin of error (plus or minus 5.7 percentage points vs. 4 percentage points).
The polls, released to The Post-Standard, are the first from any candidates or independent sources to be made public in this year’s 25th District race.
As of June 30, Maffei, D-DeWitt, has a lopsided fundraising advantage with $1.4 million in his campaign account, compared to $150,000 for Buerkle.
Buerkle, a lawyer from Onondaga Hill, attempted to capitalize on her poll Monday by releasing a memo from her pollster, McLaughlin & Associates of Rockland County. The memo said that Buerkle had “stolen the momentum in the race.”
Pollster John McLaughlin said Buerkle could win “with a well-funded and well-executed media campaign,” suggesting the poll will likely be used for fundraising purposes.
In an interview Monday, Buerkle said she found the poll encouraging. “I think absolutely this race is winnable,” she said. “It shows my message is resonating and our whole grass-roots effort is turning into a tremendous amount of support.”
Buerkle noted that the McLaughlin poll found a statistical dead heat among respondents who have heard of both candidates, with 42 percent for Buerkle, 43 percent for Maffei, and 15 percent undecided. “The key to my success is meeting the voters,” Buerkle said. “The more I can relate to people, the more support I get. I was pleased because it was the result of a lot of hard work.”
Maffei’s campaign disputed the validity of Buerkle’s poll, and released to The Post-Standard its larger sample from June 27 to June 30 as an example of a broader and more accurate survey.
Dan McNally, Maffei’s campaign manager, had only this to say about the McLaughlin & Associates poll: “The Buerkle campaign is free to believe any numbers they want to believe.”
The Maffei poll from Kiley & Company, of Boston, showed Maffei with a comfortable lead across Onondaga and Wayne counties and the portions of Cayuga and Monroe counties in the 25th District. One big difference in the two polls was in Buerkle’s name recognition. Her poll showed 33 percent were familiar enough with the former Syracuse common councilor to rate their opinion. Maffei’s poll founded only 19 percent were familiar with her.
Buerkle said the change is the result of her campaigning across all 43 towns in the district, and her July endorsements from the state Independence Party and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Buerkle also maintains a frenetic campaign schedule, working seven days a week. Some of her events are non-traditional. This weekend she took part in a tractor-pull contest in Marion, Wayne County, placing fifth out of 25 participants.
All polls and fundraising aside, Buerkle said she intends to wage her underdog campaign by meeting directly with voters. “This year it’s the message, not the money, that will make the difference,” she said.
Contact Washington correspondent Mark Weiner at mweiner@syracuse.com or 571-970-3751.