Even though Central New Yorkers don't have a say in the state Senate elections, the outcome could affect the Syracuse region.
SYRACUSE, N.Y. - The state's Republican Party is in a fight for its life to keep control
of its last source of power in state government: The New York State Senate.
Central
New York voters will have no say in the matter. The region's six senators are
all unopposed.
That
means voters in a handful of districts near Buffalo and Albany and across the
Hudson Valley likely will decide whether the Republicans retain control of the Senate
- or whether two Democratic factions will join forces to control the chamber
and put the entire New York State Legislature into the party's hands.
And
that shift would affect Central New York greatly.
First,
a Democratic-controlled Senate would tip political power decidedly toward
Downstate. There are 63 Senate seats in New York. Only eight Democratic
senators currently represent Upstate districts, and three of those are one-term
incumbents facing tough re-election battles in a non-presidential year.
Second,
a flip in Senate control could alter the influence Syracuse's two senators now
wield as members of the chamber's current majority coalition.
That's
why Sens. David Valesky, D-Oneida, and John DeFrancisco, R-Syracuse, have been
following these races closely, even conferring with each other in DeFrancisco's
Syracuse office over how various candidates are doing.
"We
talk about it all the time," DeFrancisco said. He said the two have discussed
individual races and, in a meeting earlier this month, generally agreed on
analyses in key races to that point.
Both
senators also agree no one knows where Valesky's Independent Democratic
Conference will end up after Nov. 4 - standing alone, siding with other Senate
Democrats or recommitting to another partnership with the Republican Senate.
"It's
like businessmen, giving to both sides of the campaign to hedge their bets,"
DeFrancisco said. "Everybody is trying to court as many people as they can."
Valesky,
D-Oneida, is part of a five-member group now running the Senate with
Republicans. If the GOP can't win a majority on its own, the IDC will once
again be in a position to pick sides and jointly run the Senate with either
side.
The
IDC pledged this summer to partner with fellow Democrats to recapture the
majority. But Albany watchers agree with DeFrancisco and Valesky that the final
outcome of the Senate remains unclear.
"Nothing
is certain," said Steven Greenberg, a pollster for Siena College, said this
week of the IDC's role in deciding Senate control. "Nothing is written in
stone."
For
now, two near-certainties are emerging two weeks before Election Day. The
Republicans are positioned to win 32 seats, or more, and the majority. The
Democrats - without Valesky's IDC - are not.
The
pledge
Last
summer, under pressure from the left wing of the Democratic Party and Gov.
Andrew Cuomo, the IDC pledged to partner with the Senate's other Democrats.
"All IDC members are united and
agree to work together to form a new majority coalition between the Independent
Democratic Conference and the Senate Democratic Conference after the November
elections," said Sen. Jeffrey Klein, D-Bronx, the leader of the IDC, in a
June 25 statement that shared Cuomo's letterhead.
Valesky
said this month the IDC stands behind that pledge - as long as that partnership
means the two Democratic factions have enough seats to control the Senate. But
he also said there's no guarantee the IDC won't end up in another partnership
with the Republicans.
Sen. David Valesky talks with fellow Syracuse-area Sen. John DeFrancisco before the start of a legislative session in 2012. Stephen D. Cannerelli | scannerelli@syracuse.com
"I
can't rule anything out," Valesky said when asked about another coalition
between the IDC and the GOP senators. "And I certainly can't rule that or
any other possibility out," he added. "I think it would be presumptuous for me
or anyone else to rule out anything at this point in time, before an election
takes place."
That
careful language could end up angering some Democrats in Central New York.
"He
is trying to cover all his bases and not commit and I think that's a real step
back," said Joan Mandle, the executive director of Democracy Matters, a group
that pushed the IDC to reconnect with the other Democrats in the Senate. "I
think it's very opportunistic."
David
Kirby chairs the Democrats in Syracuse's powerful 17th Ward, a key
part of Valesky's district. Kirby isn't worried about the pledge. He wants
Valesky and the IDC to figure out the best way to represent their districts.
What
if that means aligning with the Republicans to stay in the majority? "More
power to him," Kirby said.
Valesky,
for his part, doesn't fear any backlash from his district about the outcome.
"In fact," he said, "if my political decisions as it relates to the Independent
Democratic Conference were ruled by fear, then I wouldn't be a part of the
conference in the first place."
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